EUR / GBP Trends Using Autocorrelation and Correlation Approaches

Many analysts have likened the patterns of the EUR/GBP value changes to those of the EUR/AUD when viewed from the viewpoint of correlation analysis of two-point scale. Autocorrelation is a straightforward method that makes use of inter-disciplinary approaches in order to conduct market efficiency tests within the scope of the EUR/GBP.

In most cases, analysts make use of up to 100 hours worth of time-length so as to come up with a wide range of statistical data. The time series limits may extend for up to 20 units in order produce measures of returns that are properly distributed within different time limits so as to come up with free correlations.

When the two currencies are being considered for purposes of comparison, a time lag of one hour has to be the main variable within which all other factors fall. In one such analytical study that was carried out so as to find about the relationship between these two currencies between 2002 and 2009, each of the currencies was compared to other major currencies. Continue reading

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Short Term and Long Term Comparison of USD / JPY

Long-term trends in the strength of the Japanese yen were witnessed for the longest time in the currency’s history only during the period between 1985 and 1995. The only interruption that occurred was during a stint in 1989. This stability resulted in a very amazing 71% rating of the JPY against the USD

Sometimes though, sudden reversals have to occur which might have rather violent outcomes to investors. These reversals occurred in 1990 and later on in 1998. At the present indications, the USD is heading for an over-bought condition when viewed against the JPY. There is therefore a real danger of a sudden trend reversal. The world ought to be aware of these dangers and should prepare accordingly.

One might say that the further we go in the task of predicting the behavior of the Dollar against the Yen, the closer we get to the point of trend reversal. When the present scenario is closely observed, one can clearly see that things are not as bad as they were in 2002. In 2002, there was a multi-year reversal. Continue reading

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The EUR / USD Debate in Light of the Current Global Economic Recession

The truth of the matter is that the dollar has become considerably weak in recent times. When the Bush administration plunged the US into war in Iraq, a trade deficit was the most immediate outcome. This weakened the dollar to a large extent. The long-term outcome was that many investors switched from the dollar to the Euro.

Another outcome of a reduced volume of trade in dollars is the increase in the prices of oil. The US economy is reeling from the effects of a biting recession although no negative growth has been reported. This is very true although the first quarter of a negative trend in growth has not yet been witnessed. Technically, there have to be two quarters of negative growth for a recession to be said to exist.

The American mortgage crisis has affected the value of the dollar against the Euro. Many realtors have stopped buying. They are standing by the fence waiting for the next shift in property prices before they can make a purchase. The mortgage in the US has spread its fangs into the UK where several banks have found themselves in liquidity crisis. One of these banks is Northern Bank, a renowned mortgage lender. Continue reading

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Currency Trading Tips

Every forex trader understands that there is no rule of thumb that is followed in order to arrive at an all-round solution in currency trading. Every online forex trader works within the dictates of the trading framework that has been provided to him. Every framework comes with custom-made solutions that only work in specific instances of forex trading.

A high sense of awareness is therefore called for when one starts on a new system. Each trade must be approached with the highest possible level of energy and unending enthusiasm for optimum financial benefits to be realized. Although currency trading is naturally highly unpredictable, there are pointers that foretell trouble. These pointers ought to be followed for the trader to steer his investment portfolios away from danger zones.

All the currency trading tips discussed here ought to be incorporated into your particular system; they should not take its place though. Continue reading

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What Really Brings About Currency Crises?

Many investors and international financiers have within the last two decades been caught off-guard by currency crises. Their knee-jerk responses to small economic tremors have always been in the form of capital flight and runs on different currencies. Many people argue that it is such reactions that really cause earth-shaking currency crises.

What analysts are sure about is the fact that many investors don’t take time to understand the market dynamics before making their decisions. They rely on their instincts at the expense of the economyís minutia. A currency crisis is said to have occurred when there is a sharp decline in the value of an economy’s currency. Such a decline creates much instability in areas like exchange rates.

In simpler terms, a currency crisis is the result of an interaction of very many factors. One of these factors is investor expectations. Continue reading

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Fundamental and Technical Currency Strategies

Foreign exchange markets are today very popular places for one to trade. Being a successful foreign currency trader entails having some strategies in place to help you out on the path of success. Most of the strategies that one can employ come in the form of a trading guide.

One of the most remarkable attributes of foreign currency exchange markets is that the level of liquidity is always extremely high. This simply means that the goods being exchange in this market, which in this case is currency, donít change in value when they are changed into other goods.

High liquidity translates into very low market power across many currency markets. A single entity has the ability to lower or raise the foreign exchange values, with the overall effect being a leveled-out playing field for both large and small corporations. Continue reading

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